By Reneva Fourie
On Friday, 14 March, the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) hosted an engaging webinar titled, ‘The Implications of Changes in the US Administration for South Africa and Africa’.
It is customary for academic institutions and think tanks to invite their country’s ambassadors to share their perspectives on the countries where they are stationed. Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was the keynote speaker for the event. Regrettably, his academic input, which was rooted in well-documented global trends, led to his expulsion by the Trump administration.
This expulsion sparked debate over diplomatic norms, democratic discourse, and geopolitical relations.
One of Rasool’s primary arguments was that the ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) movement, championed by Trump, is fuelled by anxiety surrounding demographic changes.
He cited projections indicating that white voters will soon comprise only 48% of the electorate.
This observation aligns with academic research that highlights the connection between demographic anxiety and the rise of right-wing populism.
Studies have shown that societies undergoing significant demographic transitions often witness political backlash from dominant groups fearful of losing their historical privileges.
This phenomenon has been observed in various countries, including South Africa, where right-wing movements brand themselves as defenders of traditional national identities.
The MAGA movement’s rhetoric, which often emphasises perceived threats to ‘American heritage’ and a decline in traditional values, fits into this broader global pattern.
Rasool also highlighted the international links among right-wing movements, particularly through influential figures like Elon Musk.
He cited Musk’s support for Nigel Farage in the UK and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Germany as examples of an emerging far-right coalition.
This viewpoint is backed by evidence demonstrating how digital platforms have facilitated the global dissemination of nationalist and supremacist ideologies.
Musk’s platform, X (formerly Twitter), has amplified conspiracy theories centred around ‘white victimhood’ and other far-right narratives.
Research indicates that such content fosters ideological echo chambers that reinforce exclusionary politics. By highlighting these connections, Rasool was referencing well-documented patterns of transnational collaboration among right-wing groups.
Ambassadors are expected to analyse and report on political trends in their host countries.
Rasool’s input at the MISTRA webinar was delivered in an intellectual forum rather than as an official state address. Diplomacy necessitates honest assessments, and expressing concern over exclusionary politics does not constitute interference in the domestic affairs of a given country.
Furthermore, Rasool advocated for strategic engagement rather than reactionary measures. He urged South Africans to maintain composure in the face of US diplomatic pressures and to pursue long-term, principled engagement.
This approach demonstrates a profound understanding of international relations and a commitment to measured and thoughtful diplomacy.
Had the United States chosen to address Rasool’s comments, it could have engaged in diplomatic discourse rather than opting for expulsion. By deciding to expel him, the US government limited the opportunity for meaningful diplomatic debate and a counterargument through discussion.
According to Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, countries have the right to declare diplomats persona non grata without needing to provide justification.
This is normally used for the expulsion of suspected intelligence operatives. However, Rasool’s expulsion appears to undermine the principles of open diplomatic engagement.
This harsh response can be attributed to the ongoing distortion of our country’s image by organisations such as Afriforum, Solidarity, and the Democratic Alliance, which have unnecessarily strained relations between South Africa and the United States.
While there have historically been agreements and disagreements in foreign policy, each country has respected the other’s territorial sovereignty. Unfortunately, the Trump administration seems to be exploiting the frustrations expressed by some white South Africans as a means of retaliating against South Africa for, among others, its solidarity with the Palestinian people and its pursuit of legal action against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Consequently, Ambassador Rasool has become an easy target.
The US response to Rasool also highlights inconsistencies in diplomatic standards. In 2023, the US ambassador to South Africa accused Pretoria of supplying arms to Russia – an accusation made without publicly available evidence.
South Africa, in contrast, adopted a measured approach to its foreign policy, striving to balance its relationships with major global powers while upholding its sovereignty. Despite the serious nature of this claim, the South African government did not resort to expelling the American diplomat.
The inconsistency in responses indicates an imbalance in the application of diplomatic norms. If the United States expects its ambassadors to make bold political statements without the risk of expulsion, then the same standard ought to be extended to foreign diplomats in Washington.
By removing Rasool, the US has conveyed a preference for unilateral engagement rather than fostering mutual dialogue.
The expulsion of Rasool marks another instance of US diplomatic pressure on South Africa. Recently, the Trump administration withdrew aid in response to South Africa’s land reform policies.
It is now also threatening sanctions against leaders in the governing party. This posture is not unique. It has started trade wars with Canada, China and Mexico.
It wants to annex the Panama Canal and Greenland and is currently considering a travel ban on 22 African countries. Such coercive tactics contribute to the perception of US ‘hard impunity’.
If the US continues to address diplomatic critiques with punitive measures, it risks alienating crucial partners in the Global South.
The best way to manage the actions of the Trump administration is to use an assertive yet non-confrontational approach. Addressing and rectifying any misconceptions regarding our domestic policies by the Trump administration is crucial.
However, we must recognise that our diplomatic initiatives will face significant challenges due to President Trump’s dismissive demeanour.
This makes it vital for South Africa to accelerate the strengthening of its multi- and bilateral trade relations with various entities, including BRICS and allied countries.
The continent serves as a significant buttress to America’s aggression, and it is imperative for South Africa to take the lead in advancing a pan-Africanist agenda that underscores the importance of self-reliance.
The prioritisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is essential for facilitating intra-African trade and enhancing regional economic integration. Most critically, it is necessary for South Africans to unite against the detrimental actions of a minority segment within our society, as these actions pose a threat to both our economic stability and national security.
Dr Reneva Fourie is a policy analyst specialising in governance, development and security and co-author of the book ‘The art of power: Pursuing liberation and nation-building’